DALLAS, TX – Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) reported second-quarter 2026 results that made the company's operating inflection visible, according to an update from Stonegate Capital Partners. Despite weaker India revenue due to OMC tender timing, the company achieved positive operating income and adjusted EBITDA, driven by quarterly 45Z recognition, higher RNG production, and improved ethanol economics.
Revenue increased 20% year-over-year and 15% quarter-over-quarter to $62.7 million, though it fell short of the $68.6 million consensus. However, the underlying performance was stronger than the revenue variance suggests. Gross profit improved to $13.5 million from a $3.4 million loss in the prior-year quarter, and adjusted EBITDA reached $9.7 million, a significant turnaround from negative $5.8 million. Stonegate's normalized EPS estimate of negative $0.11 exceeded the consensus estimate of negative $0.24.
The company's dairy RNG segment continues to be the clearest growth driver. Sales volume increased 38% year-over-year to 146,900 MMBtu, and segment gross profit rose to $4.0 million from $0.9 million. Aemetis has seven approved LCFS pathways with an average carbon intensity of negative 380, which are already improving credit economics. Additionally, six more pathways are nearing approval, and two digesters are expected to be commissioned in the third quarter of 2026, providing further runway for higher production, profitability, and cash flow.
The Keyes earnings bridge is also advancing, with mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) targeted for operation by year-end 2026. Management estimates that this will generate approximately $32 million in annual value from lower natural-gas usage and incremental LCFS and 45Z benefits. These operational improvements could materially strengthen the earnings profile beginning in 2027.
However, the balance sheet remains the primary constraint on the thesis. The company had just $1.0 million in unrestricted cash and $415.9 million in total debt at the end of the quarter. Refinancing progress is essential to translate operating improvements into durable free cash flow.
The update from Stonegate Capital Partners highlights the positive trajectory of Aemetis's operations, but also underscores the financial hurdles that remain. As the company continues to execute on its RNG and biofuels strategies, investors will be watching closely to see if it can address its liquidity and debt obligations while maintaining operational momentum.
