Stonegate Capital Partners updated coverage on Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMTX) following its first-quarter 2026 earnings, highlighting the company's shift from project buildout to recurring low-carbon fuel monetization. The quarterly results reflect the initial impact of 45Z tax credits and improving renewable natural gas (RNG) economics.
Revenue for the first quarter increased 27% year-over-year to $54.6 million, while gross profit improved to $2.8 million from a loss of $5.1 million in the prior-year period. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $1.3 million from a loss of $10.7 million. A key driver was the recognition of $4.0 million in 45Z credits associated with current-period production from both Dairy RNG and California Ethanol, following a full-year 2025 catch-up recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.
“Credit monetization is moving from narrative to reported earnings,” Stonegate noted. The recurring quarterly 45Z recognition marks a significant milestone, as these credits are now tied to ongoing production rather than being a one-time adjustment.
Dairy RNG continues to emerge as a clear proof point for recurring cash flow. RNG volumes surged 55% year-over-year to 110,000 MMBtu. Additionally, seven California Air Resources Board (CARB) pathways with a negative 380 carbon intensity score are expected to materially improve Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit capture as volumes scale.
The Keyes MVR (Mechanical Vapor Recompression) project remains a critical near-term inflection point for EBITDA. Construction is advancing toward completion in 2026, and once operational, the MVR is expected to displace approximately 80% of fossil natural gas use at the Keyes ethanol plant. Stonegate estimates this will add roughly $32 million in annual cash flow.
The results underscore Aemetis’ progress in generating recurring revenue from low-carbon fuel production, with RNG and ethanol operations increasingly benefiting from federal and state incentives. The company’s ability to consistently monetize 45Z credits and expand RNG volumes positions it for further margin improvement as these programs mature.
