HKTDC Forecasts 8-9% Hong Kong Export Growth for 2026 Driven by AI Product Demand

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) forecasts Hong Kong's exports will grow between 8% and 9% in 2026, according to its annual Export Outlook report released today. This projection follows better-than-anticipated 2025 export performance and is driven primarily by robust demand for artificial intelligence-related electronics products. The HKTDC's findings indicate that 53.2% of exporters see rising demand for AI and new technology-related electronic consumer goods as the factor most likely to boost their 2026 business, which is crucial given the electronics sector accounts for more than 70% of Hong Kong's total export value.

These positive figures are particularly notable given the high year-on-year comparison base from 2025, when many exporters frontloaded orders to complete shipments before anticipated US tariffs. Irina Fan, Director of HKTDC Research, noted that while 2025 proved to be a year of heightened uncertainty, 2026 should bring greater clarity on global trade. "With the Chinese Mainland and the US having come to a trade agreement in November, US tariffs are no longer among Hong Kong exporters' three biggest 2026 concerns," Fan stated. However, she acknowledged that uncertainties remain as business leaders worldwide reorganize activities to optimize cost advantages under varying tariff levels.

Fan explained that Chinese Mainland exports to the US will be subject to a 20% reciprocal tariff rate until November 2026, which puts China-based suppliers on par with Southeast Asian counterparts while giving them significant advantage over countries subject to higher rates. The HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25, also released today, supports the growth forecast with both its Current Performance Index (51.4) and Expectation Index (51.9) remaining above the 50-point watershed level. Kenneth Lee, Head of the HKTDC Research's Special Project and Business Advisory Section, noted that Asia remains the focus for expansion plans, with 42.0% of respondents prioritizing the Chinese Mainland market, followed by the rest of Asia (30.3%) and the ASEAN bloc (18.9%).

Detailed analysis of the survey reveals positive sentiments for major markets and key industry sectors. The Market Expectation Sub-Index shows the Chinese Mainland (57.2) and ASEAN bloc (57.0) still considered to have significant growth potential, while the US (38.0) continues to unsettle Hong Kong exporters with trade environment uncertainties. Several industry sectors show expansionary expectations for 2026, with Jewellery (54.8) topping the list, followed by Electronics (52.4), Timepieces (51.6) and Equipment/Materials (51.1). The complete HKTDC Export Confidence Index 4Q25 findings are available at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjE4ODYyNTQwNw.

Despite overall positive sentiments, the survey identifies potential challenges ahead, including rising labour and production costs (53.9%), growing logistics challenges (38.8%), and declining overseas orders due to general economic slowdown (38.2%). The sustained growth projection is significant for Hong Kong's economy as it indicates resilience in the face of global trade uncertainties and positions the city to capitalize on technological advancements. The full Hong Kong 2026 Export Outlook report can be accessed at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjE4ODc2Mzk2Nw, with additional research available through the HKTDC Research website at https://research.hktdc.com/en/.