The real estate market in northern New Jersey is not a single market at all, according to mid-year data from six towns in the region. While some communities like Maplewood and South Orange are experiencing intense buyer competition, others like Livingston and Union are seeing a noticeable shift toward buyer advantage. This divergence, even within the same county, underscores the importance of hyperlocal analysis for both buyers and sellers.
Mark Slade, a real estate professional with the Mark Slade Homes Team at Keller Williams, tracks weekly and semi-annual data across Maplewood, South Orange, West Orange, Livingston, Union, and a sixth town. His latest weekly reading shows a stark contrast: Maplewood's Hyper Market Index – a ratio of under-contract properties to new listings – sits at 1.9, the highest among the towns, followed by South Orange at 1.8. In contrast, Livingston has fallen to 0.6, well below the 1.0 threshold that defines a hyper market. The overall average across the six towns has dipped from 1.2 a month ago to 1.1 now.
Slade explains that the data shows “positive and negative trends for some of the same towns at the same time,” meaning that relying on broad market statements can mislead buyers and sellers. For instance, average sale prices have risen across all six towns. Maplewood saw a 17% increase from $1,073,000 to $1,253,000 in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025. South Orange moved from $1,064,000 to $1,176,000, Livingston from $1,263,000 to $1,409,000, and West Orange from $705,000 to $765,000.
However, price appreciation does not tell the whole story. The percentage of sales closing above asking price has shifted in ways that complicate the narrative. South Orange posted the largest increase in that metric, moving from 13.7% over asking last year to 14.8% this year. Maplewood’s year-to-date figure stands at 16.9% over asking. Livingston, however, has seen a sharp reversal, dropping from 7.3% to just 1.9% over asking in the same period. Union showed a similar pattern, falling from 5.7% to 3.3%. Slade views this as evidence that buyers in those markets are willing to pay higher absolute prices but are less willing to enter bidding wars.
Transaction volume adds another layer to the story. Unit sales are up across all six towns, but the increases are not necessarily in the highest-competition areas. West Orange rose from 161 units to 201 units, while Union jumped from 103 units to 187 units. These are not the towns with the most intense buyer competition, but they may be absorbing buyers who were priced out or exhausted by bidding wars in Maplewood and South Orange. Slade notes that buyers who lose multiple offers often recalibrate their search to markets where they have a better chance of winning, which could explain the volume gains in lower-index towns.
Looking ahead to the summer slowdown, Slade expects the traditional pattern of fewer new listings and declining under-contracts from mid-July through late August. However, he does not expect a proportional collapse in the index ratios. “My Hyper Market Index may not necessarily align with the anticipated drop-off, as the ratios may stay in line with one another,” he says. If both listings and under-contracts decline at similar rates, the competitive conditions persist even as the absolute number of transactions falls. For sellers, a quieter summer does not necessarily mean a weaker market, and for buyers, seasonal leverage may not materialize in the highest-demand towns.
The Hyper Market Index, developed by Slade and his team, is a weekly tracking tool that measures buyer-to-seller dynamics across these towns. It informs pricing strategy for sellers and offer positioning for buyers. When working with buyers in Maplewood, Slade shares the 16.9% over-asking average directly, telling them, “That’s the average. There are going to be some that are lower, maybe some even higher. But you need to incorporate that into your mindset because that’s how the market is currently trending.”
The index’s utility lies in its granularity. A regional average obscures the difference between a 1.9 in Maplewood and a 0.6 in Livingston. For buyers and sellers making decisions involving hundreds of thousands of dollars, that gap defines the strategy itself – determining whether to price aggressively to spark a bidding war or to target a realistic number and wait for the right offer.
