Three ASX Oil Stocks Positioned for Potential Rebound Amid Global Supply Constraints

Australian oil stocks are showing signs of potential recovery as global oil markets face tightening conditions and supply constraints. With oil prices trading around $65 per barrel, up from recent lows of $55, market experts from Wealth Within identify three ASX-listed companies demonstrating promising technical setups for potential rebounds.

The global oil market is experiencing significant supply pressures due to new sanctions on Russian exports and potential secondary tariffs on nations including China, Turkey, and India. Simultaneously, the U.S. government has committed to refilling its depleted strategic reserves, creating additional demand pressure. According to Wealth Within analyst Pedro Benales, both supply and demand factors are supporting higher prices, creating ideal conditions for targeting quality Australian oil producers with strong fundamentals.

Karoon Energy (ASX: KAR) is showing one of the most intriguing technical structures among ASX oil stocks. After a prolonged correction, the price has established firm support near $1.25, suggesting a potential trend reversal. The company has formed a strong base pattern aligning with historical low-volume accumulation zones, with increased trading volume and renewed investor interest indicating early signs of reversal. The next major upside targets lie at $2.68 and potentially as high as $4.80-$5.00 based on past cycle peaks.

Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS), Australia's largest oil and gas producer, continues to hold firm technical support near $20, with clean resistance structure near $27. This $7 corridor has been key since early 2024 and could define the next breakout phase. Volume has spiked around these zones, and a confirmed break above $27 could target the $38-$40 zone, signaling a return to longer-term bullish momentum according to technical analysis.

Viva Energy (ASX: VEA) presents an unexpected opportunity despite mixed Q3 2025 operating results. While retail fuel sales declined, refining margins surged 76%, with signs indicating stronger Q4 performance as Geelong Refinery operations normalize. The stock has built a stable multi-year base around $1.75, a level that provided support in 2018, 2021, and again in 2025. The next key resistance area sits near $2.60, leaving potential upside of more than 45% if momentum continues, with increasing participation volume suggesting institutional activity ahead of possible Q4 strength.

Wealth Within's Filip Tortevski emphasizes that successful trading requires precision entry and disciplined risk management rather than emotional reactions to market news. The company offers educational resources including Trading courses and the Diploma of Share Trading and Investment to help investors develop these skills. For those seeking shorter programs, the Short Course in Share Trading and Advanced stock trading course provide focused technical analysis training.

The combination of technical setups across these three companies, from small-cap Karoon to industry leader Woodside and recovery candidate Viva Energy, suggests potential trading opportunities for disciplined investors. However, experts caution that proper risk management and timing remain critical components of successful investment strategies in volatile energy markets.