Trump's Trade Policies Could Reshape Global Critical Minerals Supply Chain

Former President Trump's proposed return to the White House could dramatically alter the global critical minerals landscape, with his promised 60% tariff on Chinese goods threatening to disrupt supply chains that are crucial for technology and defense industries. The stakes are particularly high given that China controls approximately 80% of critical mineral supply chains worldwide.

China has already demonstrated its willingness to use minerals as a geopolitical tool, recently banning exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the United States. These materials are essential for semiconductors, defense equipment, and electric vehicles. A U.S. Geological Survey study indicates that China's export bans could reduce U.S. GDP by $3.4 billion.

The situation could become more severe if China extends restrictions to other critical materials. China currently dominates the production and processing of graphite, controlling 77% of natural production and nearly all refining operations. The U.S. remains completely import-dependent, with less than 15% of global graphite reserves.

Trump's broader 'America First' agenda, including potential withdrawal from NATO commitments, could force European allies to accelerate their own critical minerals strategies. This shift could lead to a more fragmented global market as nations prioritize securing their own supply chains for military and civilian applications.

The evolving situation highlights the vulnerabilities in global supply chains and could accelerate efforts to develop alternative sources of critical minerals outside of China. For nations heavily dependent on these materials for their technology and defense sectors, the potential disruption to existing supply chains may necessitate significant investment in domestic production and processing capabilities.