U.S. Ecommerce Projected to Reach $2 Trillion by 2030 as Mobile and AI Transform Retail Landscape

The U.S. ecommerce market continues to expand at a record pace, driven by the convergence of mobile technology, generative AI, and new retail infrastructure designed for speed and personalization. According to Mordor Intelligence, U.S. ecommerce is projected to grow from $1.25 trillion in 2025 to $2.08 trillion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 10.7 percent. This substantial growth trajectory signals a fundamental shift in retail dynamics that will impact consumers, brands, and retailers across the country.

Mitch Gould, Founder and CEO of Nutritional Products International (NPI), emphasized that this expansion represents more than just numerical growth. "What's happening now is not just growth in numbers — it's a complete redefinition of how consumers discover, evaluate, and buy products," Gould stated. "Mobile and AI are merging convenience with intelligence, and that's changing the entire distribution playbook." The transformation is particularly evident in mobile commerce, which now drives the majority of online checkouts in the U.S., while generative AI is improving conversion rates by aligning search intent with product discovery.

The market's momentum is already apparent in recent performance data. Ecommerce sales climbed 7.5% year-over-year in 2024, reaching $1.1 trillion, and now represent 16.3% of all U.S. retail sales, according to Digital Commerce 360 and the U.S. Census Bureau. This growth underscores the increasing importance of digital channels in the overall retail ecosystem and highlights why businesses must adapt to these changing consumer behaviors.

Gould explained the transformative role of artificial intelligence in the current retail landscape. "Generative AI is bridging the gap between awareness and action," he said. "It's helping consumers find what they actually want — and helping brands tell their story in ways that resonate faster and more authentically." This technological advancement is particularly crucial as consumers increasingly expect personalized shopping experiences and instant access to relevant products.

The market consolidation around major players continues to shape the competitive environment. Amazon remains the dominant force, holding roughly 40% of the U.S. ecommerce market, nearly triple the combined online sales of its next three competitors. However, Walmart is quickly closing the gap, reporting 23% year-over-year growth in online sales in 2024 and more than $120 billion in digital revenue. "Amazon, Walmart, and emerging players like Temu are setting the standard for logistics and personalization," Gould noted. "But their growth also opens the door for smaller, high-quality brands that can prove readiness — from compliance to category alignment — before they go to market."

This projected growth to $2 trillion by 2030 carries significant implications for businesses of all sizes. Brands must develop comprehensive strategies that integrate both digital and physical channels to remain competitive. Through its 'Evolution of Distribution' model, NPI prepares international and domestic brands to compete across multiple channels by combining regulatory and operational readiness, retail positioning, relationship-driven introductions, and post-placement support. "Success in ecommerce today is about orchestration," Gould emphasized. "You can't treat online and retail as separate worlds anymore. The winners are those who synchronize data, fulfillment, and storytelling across every platform consumers use."

The projected growth to $2 trillion represents not just a market expansion but a fundamental restructuring of retail economics. As mobile technology and AI continue to evolve, businesses must adapt their distribution strategies, marketing approaches, and customer engagement models to thrive in this rapidly changing environment. The convergence of these technologies is creating new opportunities for brands that can effectively leverage data, personalize experiences, and maintain consistency across all consumer touchpoints.