The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has substantially revised upward its forecast for Hong Kong's merchandise export growth in 2026 to 42%-47%, following significantly stronger-than-expected global demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related technologies. The revision, announced on September 29, 2026, marks a major upgrade to the trade outlook and underscores the city's evolving role in global technology supply chains.
The latest HKTDC Export Confidence Index (3Q26) indicates that exporter sentiment remains broadly positive despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties. The Current Performance Index stood at 51.8, while the Expectation Index registered 51.3, with both remaining above the neutral 50-point threshold. The full index is available at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjQzNzY3MzkyMw.
AI-driven electronics have exceeded expectations. HKTDC Director of Research Bruce Pang said, "The strong Hong Kong export growth recorded this year has been driven primarily by the rapid acceleration of global demand for AI-related products and infrastructure. Demand for semiconductors, memory chips, computer components, telecommunications equipment and other advanced electronics expanded much faster than expected." Electronics accounted for approximately 80% of Hong Kong's total exports in the first eight months of 2026, with exports rising 52.8% year-on-year. Major markets included the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN and the US. A detailed report on the upgraded forecast is available at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjQzNzY3NzQ4Mg.
The strong performance extends beyond technology items. HKTDC Deputy Director of Research Wing Chu noted, "Exports of a broad range of conventional electronic parts and components have continued to perform strongly. Regional manufacturing networks spanning the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN economies remain highly active." ASEAN remains one of Hong Kong's most dynamic export destinations, while exporter sentiment towards both ASEAN and the Chinese Mainland is firmly positive.
Recent US trade policy developments have introduced uncertainty. In July, the United States imposed an additional 12.5% Section 301 tariff on imports from several trading partners, including the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong. Nevertheless, Hong Kong's exports to the US rose 63.4% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2026. Pang added that the direct impact is expected to be limited, as a substantial share of US-bound exports consists of products covered by tariff exemption arrangements. He also cited the September Xi-Trump meeting and extension of the trade truce until January 2027, coupled with the US$30 billion Reciprocal Tariff Reduction Arrangement, as factors providing a welcome period of stability.
Beyond cyclical demand, Hong Kong's trade profile is undergoing a structural transformation. According to HKTDC research, exports are increasingly concentrated in high-value, technology-intensive products such as integrated circuits, computer parts and advanced telecommunications equipment. This shift has increased reliance on air freight, strengthening Hong Kong's position as a leading high-value international trade and logistics hub. A report on this evolution is available at https://research.hktdc.com/en/article/MjQzOTM2OTY1MQ.
Wing Chu said, "Hong Kong is increasingly handling products that are compact in size but exceptionally high in value... This transformation highlights Hong Kong's evolution from a traditional trading gateway into a high-value-added international trade and supply chain management centre."
Looking ahead, the HKTDC expects exports to maintain solid momentum through the remainder of 2026, supported by resilient global demand for technology products and robust manufacturing activities across the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN. However, exporters will continue to navigate challenges including geopolitical tensions, volatility in energy and commodity markets, and rising protectionist measures. HKTDC Section Head of Special Project & Business Advisory Kenneth Lee said, "Despite these challenges, international consumption has remained relatively resilient in recent months, helping sustain demand for a broad range of consumer products." Sectors such as clothing, watches and clocks, and jewellery have continued to deliver stable export performance.
For more information, visit the Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) or explore the HKTDC Research website at https://research.hktdc.com/en/. The original release is available at www.newmediawire.com.
