The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) has upwardly revised its 2026 export forecast to year-on-year growth of above 20%, citing a stronger-than-expected performance driven by sustained global demand for technology products, particularly in the AI sector. The announcement, made alongside the release of the HKTDC Export Confidence Index for the second quarter of 2026, signals improved exporter sentiment amid evolving US trade policies and ongoing geopolitical developments.
The Export Confidence Index showed both key indicators rebounding above the 50 threshold, with the Current Performance Index at 51.0 and the Expectation Index at 52.4. According to HKTDC Director of Research Bruce Pang, “The recent upturn has been supported by resilient regional trade amid the AI-driven technology cycle, which has been maintained despite lingering uncertainties in the Middle East.” Pang noted that outlooks for Hong Kong’s major markets have improved, with the Chinese Mainland and ASEAN remaining the most promising, and sentiment toward the US market strengthening after the Xi-Trump meeting in mid-May.
Hong Kong’s exports in the first five months of 2026 recorded a robust 36.2% year-on-year increase, underpinned by strong demand for electronics amid an accelerating global AI cycle. Electronics accounted for more than 70% of total exports, with semiconductors and intermediate items performing particularly well. The proliferation of AI applications, including generative AI and enterprise digitalisation, has triggered a new wave of demand for high-performance chips, ICT equipment, and related components, significantly boosting Hong Kong’s re-export trade to the Chinese Mainland, ASEAN production bases, and major developed markets.
However, a notable portion of recent growth has been price-driven due to tight supply conditions in the semiconductor sector, leading to significant increases in component prices, especially memory chips and advanced processors. HKTDC Deputy Director of Research Wing Chu explained, “The export value of key electronic components has risen faster than order volumes, with price increases amplifying overall growth. But as production capacity expands and supply constraints ease, semiconductor prices are expected to moderate, which may soften export value growth over the longer term, even as underlying demand for AI-enabled devices remains resilient.”
Hong Kong continues to play a critical role as a regional trading hub, facilitating the flow of electronic parts and semi-manufactured goods across Asian supply chains. Kenneth Lee, HKTDC Section Head of Special Projects & Business Advisory, noted that steady overseas demand for consumer products has also provided support, reflecting resilient global consumption. Looking ahead, uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, volatility in global energy prices, and rising protectionism could weigh on trade performance. The full report is available on the HKTDC Research website at research.hktdc.com.
