The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) reported that Hong Kong exporters have adopted a more cautious stance in the first quarter of 2026 amid ongoing global trade and economic uncertainties, despite strong export performance in recent months. The HKTDC 1Q26 Export Confidence Index, released on March 31, 2026, showed moderate declines for two key indicators: the Current Performance Index stood at 46.5, while the Expectation Index returned a figure of 46.9, reflecting caution among survey respondents due to the uncertain external environment.
Trade value expectations remained relatively steady, with the Trade Value Sub-Index staying near the neutral threshold—the Current reading at 50.9 and the Expectation reading at 49.1—suggesting unit prices are expected to hold firm in the coming months. Meanwhile, both the Current and Expected Inventory Sub-Index rose above 60, indicating inventory rundown amid growing shipments early in the year. HKTDC Director of Research Bruce Pang commented on the findings, stating, "The outlook for many of Hong Kong’s major markets has moderated somewhat, including the ASEAN bloc and the Chinese Mainland, largely on account of ongoing geopolitical developments. In the longer term, however, fundamental demand—especially for electronics and other consumer sectors—remains resilient. Hong Kong’s trade prospects should stay positive, yet remain cautious, pending the further easing of global geopolitical conflicts."
Despite the overall softening, several key sectors outperformed the overall Index. The jewellery sector rallied impressively, supported by robust sales and sizeable new orders, with its Current reading climbing to 57.1 (up 5.9) and its Expectation reading rising to 56.0 (up 1.1). The clothing sector also showed considerable improvement, with its Current Index rising to 52.1 (up 6.1) and its Expectation Index increasing by 9.2 points to 53.4. However, sentiment among electronics exporters weakened, with a Current reading of 44.9 and an Expectation reading of 45.6, signalling disruptions over the Chinese New Year period. Cost pressures showed signs of stabilising, with the Cost Sub-Index improving significantly—the Current reading rose 15.2 points to 38.1 and its Expectation reading up by 8.5 points to 41.3—indicating potential sustained relief from cost pressures, despite recent surges in oil and energy prices triggered by developments in the Middle East. The impact of the recent conflict in the region was not factored into this survey as the fieldwork was carried out in January and February.
As part of the same survey, HKTDC Research conducted a thematic assessment of Hong Kong exporters’ cross-border e-commerce business, revealing that 46% of respondents were already engaged in cross-border e-commerce, while a further 20% plan to enter the sector within the coming year. Among companies already engaged in cross-border e-commerce, the Chinese Mainland ranked as the leading e-commerce sales destination (24%), followed by the EU27 & UK (17%) and Canada & the US (15%), while the ASEAN bloc (14%) continued to emerge as a promising market with notable growth potential. Kenneth Lee, HKTDC Section Head of Special Project & Business Advisory, added, "Market diversification remains a key strategy for Hong Kong traders to mitigate risks. At the same time, more companies are leveraging e-commerce channels to boost sales and enhance business sustainability amid an uncertain external environment." The full details of the survey can be found in the HKTDC Export Confidence Index 1Q26 report, with additional resources available on the HKTDC Research website.
