New coal projects worldwide are being approved at roughly three times the rate of cancellations, according to figures from German environmental group Urgewald’s annual coal industry database. The findings arrive at an uncomfortable moment for the climate agenda, as two of the countries most active in expanding coal use are also set to host this year’s COP31 summit.
The report counts 257 new developments that entered planning in 2025, while 76 were dropped. The full pipeline now covers 1,510 projects spanning power generation, mining, infrastructure and chemicals. Over 40 percent of tracked companies are actively building out their coal holdings, among them 335 companies with 606 new coal-fired power stations in the works, carrying a total capacity above 740 gigawatts—roughly four times the total output of the entire U.S. coal power sector. An additional 357 firms are sinking or extending thermal coal mines in 39 countries, with planned annual output approaching 3.2 billion short tons, equal to 41% of current global thermal coal production.
Australia will chair the COP31 negotiations despite holding the third-largest pipeline of new thermal coal mining projects anywhere in the world. Around 49 mines or mine expansions are in development domestically, 20 of them on previously undisturbed ground. The country is also the world’s second-largest coal exporter and remains among the small number of OECD nations that have not committed to a coal exit timeline, even after signing a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap at COP30 in Belém.
In 2025, coal generated 34% of Turkey’s electricity, more than any other source; wind and solar together reached 22%. Its government has placed electrification at the center of its COP31 platform while channeling more than $2.7 billion annually into coal support programs. This commitment gap extends well beyond the two summit hosts, with only 142 of all companies in Urgewald’s database having established phase-out dates covering their full coal portfolios—fewer than one in twenty of the firms tracked.
Some tightening is visible in the financial sector, though it has not translated into reduced activity at the project level. More than 400 financial institutions have introduced policies restricting coal investment, and European banks have directed 46% less capital toward coal over the same period. Whether that trajectory is sufficient to slow the pace of new project announcements is the question that COP31 will struggle to answer. The reality is that coal is unlikely to disappear from the energy mix of many countries any time soon, which explains why businesses like Frontieras North America Inc. are still attracting significant investment into their programs.
For readers and investors, the data signals that the global energy transition remains uneven. While financial institutions are restricting coal funding, project-level activity continues to expand, creating a disconnect that could shape energy markets and climate policy for years. Companies with coal exposure may face reputational and regulatory risks, but near-term demand in some regions keeps projects viable. The findings underscore the challenge facing policymakers as they prepare for COP31: translating net-zero pledges into tangible reductions in coal development.
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