Keith Fowler, founder and operator of Lion Shield Protection, has released his outlook on personal and community security for the coming year, highlighting a concerning shift in how security incidents occur. Fowler, drawing from field operations and client feedback, states that most incidents are not complex but stem from routine, distraction, and overconfidence. "What's changed is how fast small mistakes turn into real problems," Fowler says.
Fowler notes a sharp increase in opportunistic incidents tied to routine behavior, with people moving faster, multitasking more, and paying less attention. Data indicates 41% of home break-ins occur without forced entry, often due to unlocked doors, while 27% of theft incidents involve vehicles with items left in plain sight. Over 60% of people admit to checking their phones while entering or exiting homes, and nearly 70% of adults lack a basic emergency plan. "People assume risk looks dramatic," Fowler says. "In reality, it looks quiet and fast."
According to Fowler, a critical error is relying on tools while ignoring habits. "I see people trust alarms, cameras, or apps, but they skip the basics," he says, noting common mistakes like predictable routines, unlocked vehicles "just for a minute," and ignoring subtle warning signs. He adds that people often mistake familiarity for safety, which lowers their guard.
Looking ahead, Fowler expects three pressures to increase: response times, personal responsibility, and accountability. Police response times have risen 15–20% in many urban areas, property crime rates increased in over half of U.S. counties last year, and emergency services are stretched during peak hours. "Help may take longer," Fowler says. "That means individuals need to be more self-aware and prepared." More information on crime trends can be found at https://www.fbi.gov/crime-data-reports.
Despite these challenges, Fowler emphasizes that consistency remains effective. "Simple habits done every day beat complex plans that never get used," he says, citing basics like locking doors, clearing vehicles, pausing before entry, scanning environments, and keeping emergency contacts accessible. "I've watched people avoid problems because they paused for three seconds," Fowler notes. "That pause matters."
Fowler outlines three scenarios for the year ahead. In an optimistic scenario where conditions stabilize, he recommends establishing a daily safety checklist and reviewing routines weekly. In a realistic scenario with steady incidents and stretched response times, he advises changing routines regularly and reducing distractions. In a cautious scenario with increasing incidents and delays, he suggests heightening situational awareness and auditing habits monthly. "None of these steps require fear," Fowler says. "They require attention." For resources on emergency preparedness, visit https://www.ready.gov.
Fowler urges individuals to assess their environment and act promptly, starting with identifying three daily habits to improve and applying them consistently. "Safety doesn't come from luck," he adds. "It comes from habits."
