Stonegate Capital Partners Initiates Coverage on Fold Holdings, Highlights Bitcoin Credit Card as Growth Catalyst

Stonegate Capital Partners has initiated coverage on Fold Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: FLD), providing analysis of the cryptocurrency financial services company's recent performance and growth trajectory. The coverage comes as Fold demonstrates significant operational momentum with revenue reaching $7.4 million and net income of $0.6 million for the quarter, while maintaining nearly 50% top-line growth year-over-year.

The company's operational metrics show substantial progress, with $265 million in total transaction volume for the quarter and the addition of over 10,000 net new accounts. Year-over-year comparisons reveal impressive growth, with new accounts increasing 2.1% and transaction volumes climbing approximately 41%. Management has indicated that these trends align with typical seasonal strength patterns, suggesting continued momentum into the fourth quarter.

Fold's expansion into mainstream retail distribution represents a significant strategic development. The company's Bitcoin Gift Card launch now reaches approximately 2,000 Kroger locations, creating what management describes as "a mainstream on-ramp outside the app." This retail footprint expansion is complemented by a partnership with Steak 'n Shake that rewards customers with $5 Bitcoin Gift Cards, providing what the company views as a scalable path for broad retail distribution. Management anticipates these initiatives will drive wallet expansion at a negative cost of acquisition.

The emerging flagship growth driver appears to be Fold's Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card, developed in partnership with Visa and Stripe. The card offers rewards up to 3.5 percent on all purchases with no category restrictions or deposit requirements, plus bonus earnings up to 10 percent at top brands within the Fold network. With a waitlist exceeding 80,000 potential users, the company targets initial distribution by year-end and general access in the first quarter of 2026. Management positions the card as both a premium bitcoin-native credit experience and a high cross-sell engine designed to capture greater wallet share than debit options.

Financially, Fold maintains a strong capital position with a Bitcoin treasury holding of 1,526 BTC, supporting a Bitcoin NAV of approximately $160 million. The company views this treasury as a differentiated, lower-cost source of growth capital compared to traditional equity issuance or term debt. Additional financial flexibility comes from a $250 million equity purchase facility tied to product momentum and market conditions, plus a recently secured $45 million revolving credit facility to support future growth initiatives.

Stonegate's valuation analysis employs two comparative approaches. The blended EV/Revenue analysis suggests a valuation range of $5.42 to $7.71 with a midpoint of $6.57, while the EV/BTC NAV analysis indicates a range of $5.23 to $8.65 with a midpoint of $6.94. These valuations reflect the company's position at the intersection of traditional financial services and cryptocurrency adoption, with particular emphasis on the potential of the Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card to drive next-stage growth.

The initiation of coverage by Stonegate Capital Partners highlights growing institutional interest in companies bridging cryptocurrency with mainstream financial services. As traditional and crypto financial ecosystems continue to converge, Fold's approach to making bitcoin accessible through familiar financial products like credit cards and gift cards represents an important development in cryptocurrency adoption. The company's focus on unit economics and operating leverage, combined with strategic retail partnerships, positions it to potentially capitalize on the expanding intersection of digital assets and everyday financial transactions.